In Wales, Plaid Cymru is currently on course to lose one seat to Labour. Support for Scottish independence has grown steadily over the last forty five years. Savanta (23 February) which placed Labour on 45%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrats on 9%. In terms of translating these election poll findings into a projected make up of the current House of Commons, Politics.co.uk has used the Butler method to calculate the current swing between the parties compared to the 2019 General Election. We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. By clicking 'Create Account and Subscribe' you agree to us creating an account for you and subscribing you to our newsletter in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Legal Notice.Emails, which may be sent daily or less frequently, may include marketing elements. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. The company, based in Drumchapel, has reportedly ceased all trading with its annual results currently overdue by more than two months. Under this unlikely but not impossible scenario, the Electoral Calculus seat predictor says Labour would end up with 37 Scottish MPs, the SNP would have 10, the Tories seven and the Lib Dems five. Coming into the autumn, the Conservatives appeared to have suffered no adverse polling impacts from either their proposed rise in national insurance, or the autumn fuel shortages. Can the public identify the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party? Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Voting Intention. The previous YouGov covered the 23rd - 26th of January. Crucially for the Union, the SNP would be some distance off a majority share if the election was to be regarded as a 'de facto' referendum on independence, as Nicola Sturgeon has suggested. A new opinion poll has found that support for the Tories in Wales is in freefall. They do not factor in the potential for further additional regional or constituency centric swings. Six reasons Labour might not win the next election alone, Urban Flight A real threat to many formerly safe seats in the Blue Wall. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds. US ; About ; For business ; . Humza Yousaf 'should be anti-nationalist choice' for First Minister - because he's so useless, The Majority reckons the health secretary will create a 'raging bin fire' for the SNP if he gets the keys to Bute House when the party votes on a new leader, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle 'OK' about leaving Frogmore Cottage following Buckingham Palace's eviction, The couple are said to have accepted that they were privileged to have a house in the US and the UK, Rangers XI v Kilmarnock as Michael Beale starts Nicolas Raskin and Todd Cantwell after Celtic final defeat, New January recruits return to the first team after their shock Hampden omission, Manchester United hero Nicky Butt 'hated' Aberdeen interview process as he admits 'sick' feeling of manager talks, The Old Trafford Class of 92' hero spoke to several suitors including Aberdeen in 2021, SNP blasted for 'dragging their heels' over dangerous cladding programme as they spend less than 1m of 97m funding pot. Could Labour Profit From Nicola Sturgeons Resignation? Notable recent election polls This Conservative poll lead coincided with the unusual event of a governing party winning a seat from the Opposition, as occurred in the May 2021 Hartlepool by-election. Consumer packaged goods (CPG) Eating & drinking. Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. The Boundary Commission is currently in the midst of a review designed to better equalise constituency sizes. This lead was trending at around 8% at the point that Liz Truss became prime minister in September 2022. 23% 22 Feb: PeoplePolling: GB News UK Across the whole of the UK, the YouGov poll conducted on November 1-2 predicted Labour way out ahead on 50 per cent of the vote (down one point) and the Tories marooned on 25 per cent (up one point). The YouGov Cost of Living Segmentation YouGov 12:02 7-Feb-23. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. However support for Scottish independence grew significantly during the 1980s, particularly as Margaret Thatchers tenure in office continued. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems have 9 per cent of the vote (-1), but could be well placed to pick up vital seats in the Blue Wall, where voters would sooner pinch their nose and vote amber over red. About; Social . By the second half of 2020, in November 2020, the Yes campaign reached a record level of 56% in the polls. Indeed by the time that the Scot, Gordon Brown, became prime minister in 2007, support for Scottish independence had fallen back to 24%, its lowest level for over two decades. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) - this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. Humza Yousaf blasted as he promises to spend taxpayer cash on more independence prospectuses, The Scottish Government health secretary, and front-runner to replace Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister, used his speech in Arbroath to claim that he was going to 'kickstart the independence campaign', Ange Postecoglou hails Reo Hatate Celtic impact as he makes 'another couple of levels' claim. This compares with the position in the 2014 Independence referendum, when 55.3% of Scottish voters opposed plans for an Independent Scotland, with 44.7% voting in favour. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Scottish independence. Todays poll found that, among those who expressed a view, 76 per cent of voters believe the Scottish governments plans to change the law on gender recognition would pose a safety risk in women-only spaces, such as prisons, hospital wards and changing rooms while some 24 per cent disagreed. The leader of the SNP has insisted her party was "not divided". Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. The latest voting intention survey puts Labour a whopping 28 points ahead of the Tories, with Rishi Sunaks party flirting with sub-20 numbers in what would be a historic low. Where does the public really stand on womens rights and proposals to reform the Gender Recognition Act? The pollster found Labour on 50 per cent of the vote an increase of three points from their last poll. Boris Johnson may have misled Parliament over Partygate, investigating MPs have claimed, Matt Hancocks reaction to his affair with Gina Coladangelo has been revealed in leaked WhatsApp messages, Numerous Russian attacks in eastern Donetsk have been repelled in the past day, Ukraines military has said, The White House has confirmed that Joe Biden had a cancerous skin lesion removed last month, At least 17 people have died in a fire at a fuel depot in Indonesia, Saving Private Ryan actor Tom Sizemore has died aged 61 after a brain aneurysm, Labour were just two points behind the SNP in Scotland before Nicola Sturgeon's shock, Support for Scottish independence at 46% before Nicola Sturgeon resigned poll. Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence. The other tables reflect different ways questions around Independence can be asked, they may produce different results. A YouGov poll in March of last year found that 55% backed keeping the monarchy . Company number: SC669393. Polling for the Welsh parliament election is less extensive than what is available in Scotland. "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given. Any variations that might have an impact on the poll result, such as excluding 16- to 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. should not be a referendum on Scottish Keir Starmer has finally found his Clause IV moment. A new poll published by YouGov Tuesday shows that Sunak would lose to any of his three remaining rivals among Tory members in a final two-way round of votes. Topic . Jeremy Corbyn is not allowed to stand as a Labour MP at the next election would he still get your vote? The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023, and it will rise to 14% by 2024. Opinion polling for UK general elections; 2010 election; Opinion polls: 2015 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: 2017 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: . and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively. Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided. That lead then jumped to a staggering 24% in the three weeks after former chancellor Kwarsi Kwartengs mini budget and prior to Liz Truss resignation. Please check you have typed it correctly. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Scottish NHS staff reject latest pay offer and threaten 'unprecedented' strike action, Nicola Sturgeons SNP government blocking Scotlands 'success in the UK', says Sir Keir Starmer, Met Police in London urged to investigate the SNP's Covid 'crime of the century', Campaigners believe longstanding failures in the Scottish healthcare regulation were exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, leading to up to 30,000 avoidable deaths and they won't stop until they get justice, Prince Harry feels 'stuck' with Meghan Markle in America as biographer claims he wants them to come home, The Duke and Duchess of Sussex quit the UK in 2020 but observers reckon the move has not worked out for them, Tax authorities 'destroyed' Rangers, former chairman Charles Green tells court, Green also spoke of his dislike for Craig Whyte, telling the court 'if we had a collection in this court we would have more money from that than Craig Whyte would ever have', Prince Harry set to lose Dukedom as King's eviction is block on him 'deputising', More rejection for Prince Harry as experts reckon his UK eviction is a tactical move to stop him from being able to step into Royal roles in the event of King Charles's absence, Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell's joint bank account is key to resignation, says Private Eye, The outgoing SNP leader and her chief executive husband are urged to answer the question about whether or not they have a joint bank account, as the magazine says Operation Branchform was the 'game-changer' behind shock resignation, Teaching strikes reprieve in doubt as union blasts 14% pay rise as 'paltry'. The YouGov poll released on Monday night put the lead for the no campaign at six points, down from 14 points in the middle of August and 22 points early last month. The Tories would be on seven MPs up one despite all the turmoil of the past 12 months with the Lib Dems also up one on five, according to the seat predictor from Electoral Calculus. In early November 2021, the furore over the resignation of the Conservative MP Owen Patterson saw the trend Conservative vote share fall by a further 3%. Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 2%. The Aberdeen youth product is training with the under-21s after falling out-of-favour on Tyneside. All Rights Reserved. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Scottish independence. Id 100% bang this poll pic.twitter.com/zW5y7LzwXS. Get the day's top headlines delivered to your inbox. conservative party Labour Party Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. We only ask you to donate what you can afford, with an option to cancel your subscription at any point. The majority of people believe that a doctors approval should be needed for a person to change their sex in law. The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40 per cent to 36. That opinion poll lead so far appears unaffected by Nicola Sturgeons announcement that she was standing down as first minister in mid February 2023. Humza Yousaf takes the lead as SNP members swing behind Nicola Sturgeon's man, The 'worst health secretary in the history of devolution' is just ahead of his rivals in the SNP leadership contest, although a third of Nat members still don't know who to vote for, Ian Blackford 'looking forward' to end of police probe into SNP's 'murky' finances as he dodges Peter Murrell question. Four in ten Scottish voters want Nicola Sturgeon to resign, new poll suggests, Four in 10 Scots think Sturgeon should stand down, poll finds, Nicola Sturgeon opinion poll finds more than three-quarters of Scots think she should go, First Minister of Scotland: Runners and riders. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. Polling, even using the same question, can show systematic differences between different polling organisations and sponsors. The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. The tide may be turning on Nicola Sturgeon and the Nats as a YouGov poll suggests the party could lose 23 seats while another UK survey suggests a collapse to just TEN MPs at the next General Election. YouGov found that voting intention in 53 such constituencies in the south and east of England currently held by the party stood at 44% for the Conservatives, 24% for Labour, 18% for the Liberal Democrats and 9% for the Greens. You can unsubscribe whenever you want. The Conservatives meanwhile have dropped to 21% of current vote intention, down seven points. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023 and it will rise to 14% by 2024. That's according to a new YouGov poll commissioned by WalesOnline to mark St David's Day 2023. . YouGov is a global public opinion and data company. Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng's tax-cutting budget. YOUGOV has recorded a boost in Scottish independence support, with backing for Yes up four points in its latest polling. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r